AGP Executive Report

Energy & Infrastructure: Syria’s gas network keeps taking hits. The Syrian Petroleum Company says it restored the Jbessa gas pipeline near Deir Ezzor after crews replaced an 18-meter section following an explosion, while teams also worked to restart the Arab Gas Pipeline between Adra and Deir Ali to bring power plants back online in stages. Security & Industry Disruption: Gunmen in western Homs killed seven and wounded four after opening fire on a civilian bus carrying company employees, underscoring how instability is disrupting workers and local business operations. Cross-Border Trade & Logistics: Iraq-Syria border traffic is being positioned as a new energy corridor: reports say 1,000–1,200 trucks carrying Iraqi oil cross Syria daily toward ports like Baniyas, with officials pushing corridors to bypass shipping risks. Finance & Capacity Building: The UAE’s central bank and Syria’s central bank signed an MoU to boost cooperation on payments, monetary policy, cash management, fintech, climate risk, and regulatory know-how. Business Services: Damascus is seeing demand for “move-in ready” support as new registrations rise; 360 Business Hub is pitching workspace, meetings, and operational logistics for incoming firms.

Central Banking & Finance: The UAE’s Central Bank and Syria’s Central Bank signed an MoU to boost financial and supervisory cooperation, covering payment systems, monetary policy, cash management, fintech, climate risk, sustainable finance, inclusion, and credit information. Energy & Power Supply: A gas pipeline explosion near Damascus shut down three major power plants (Deir Ali, Al-Nasiriyah, Tishreen), worsening an already fragile electricity situation. Security & Disruption: In Idlib, two massive explosions hit the Taftanaz military airport area, with no casualties reported; in Homs, gunmen killed at least seven in a bus attack on company workers. Trade & Agriculture: Kuwait and Syria opened markets to Brazilian products, with Syria able to import Brazilian corn as exports to Syria rose sharply. Shipping & Regional Costs: UN-linked reporting warns fuel subsidies worldwide could top $1T this year as the Iran war strains energy and food prices—pressures that also ripple into Syria’s import costs. Tourism & Connectivity: flydubai’s Syria push continues after participation in the Syria Travel Show, even as Flight 1073 investigations raise new aviation security questions.

Syria Energy & Power: A gas pipeline explosion near Damascus has shut down three major power plants (Deir Ali, Al-Nasiriyah, Tishreen), worsening an already fragile electricity supply as civil defense teams work to cool the affected area. Security & Industry Workforce: Gunmen killed seven people and wounded four in a bus attack in Homs province, with victims reported as company employees returning home—another sign of instability hitting workers and daily operations. Syria–China Trade & Reconstruction Inputs: Syrian imports from China surged to about $669.9m in the first half of 2026, driven by demand for iron, machinery, vehicles and construction materials tied to factory rehabilitation and public works. Tourism & Coastal Industry Concept: Syria unveiled “From War to Life,” a proposed underwater museum off Latakia combining marine tourism, environmental regeneration and decommissioned war equipment—still at concept stage, but aimed at new jobs across diving, hotels and transport. Regional Shipping Connectivity: UNCTAD data shows China dominating liner-shipping connectivity (index 1,347.6 in Sept.), underlining the logistics backdrop Syria’s trade and port plans will depend on.

Energy Infrastructure Under Strain: A massive gas pipeline blast near Damascus (Eastern Ghouta, close to Tishreen power plant) reportedly knocked three power stations offline, deepening Syria’s electricity crunch; officials said the cause is unclear and could be technical or sabotage. Security Hits Industry: Gunmen opened fire on a civilian bus/minibus carrying workers and engineers in Homs, killing seven and wounding four, adding to fears for construction and industrial staff commuting to sites. Cross-Border Trade & Policy: Syria’s ban on alcohol imports is being criticized as counterproductive after seizures showed enforcement is possible but demand still drives smuggling, hurting legal revenue and forcing border resources. Reconstruction Supply Chain: Chinese firms are pitching steel structures, expandable housing, and security systems at Lebanon’s Project Lebanon 2026, with some explicitly eyeing the Syrian market as a gateway. Regional Energy Economics: Jordan’s planned desalination push highlights how water projects can lock in fossil gas demand when grid power dominates—an issue Syria’s energy sector will feel too. Aviation/Logistics Note: The US eases restrictions on defense trade with Syria, signaling a cautious shift toward more direct engagement that could affect future procurement and services.

Energy & Power Disruption: A suspected sabotage blast hit a gas pipeline near Damascus’s Tishreen power station, forcing three gas-fired plants (Deir Ali, Nasiriyah, Tishreen) offline and triggering wider electricity rationing as crews cooled and isolated the damaged section. Security & Industrial Risk: The pipeline attack came amid a broader pattern of strikes on Syria’s gas network, raising the cost of downtime for power generation and the pressure on already strained infrastructure. Industrial Ties & Imports: Separate coverage says Syria-China trade is nearing $670m in the first half of 2026, with Chinese-linked industrial investment pushing demand for iron, machinery, vehicles, and construction materials. Business & Reconstruction Finance: The same reporting points to growing factory rehabilitation and public works activity, suggesting industrial procurement is becoming a key driver of imports. Regional Context: EU moves to deepen ties with Syria and talk of sanctions relief continue to shape the investment outlook for industry and services.

EU-Syria Reset: EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas met Syrian FM Asaad al-Shaibani in Damascus, saying Brussels wants to “upgrade” ties and mobilize more investment, while stressing reconstruction needs security, rule of law, and functioning institutions. Energy Shock: A pipeline blast in Deir ez-Zor halted gas flow to power plants, with authorities blaming sabotage and warning of worsening shortages as production remains far below pre-war levels. EU Pressure on Israel: Shaibani urged the EU to move beyond concern and apply “effective pressure” for Israel to pull back to Dec. 8, 2024 lines, as strikes continue in southern Syria. Sino-Syrian Trade Boost: Syria’s imports from China hit about $669.9m in the first half of 2026, driven by new Chinese-linked industrial investment in machinery and construction materials. Reconstruction Finance: Japan partially lifted sanctions on Syrian entities, citing support for reconstruction and development. Regional Security Fallout: With the US ending its Iraq mission on Sept. 30, analysts warn of a potential security vacuum affecting Daesh remnants and Iran-aligned militias. Industrial Growth Signals: Syria’s reconstruction push also shows up in cross-border infrastructure plans, including work on the Qamishli–Nusaybin border crossing with Türkiye.

Energy Security & Infrastructure: Syria reports repeated sabotage on its gas network, including a major pipeline fire near Deir Ezzor that halted gas flows from the Jbeissa fields to power stations, raising fresh doubts for energy transit plans. Fuel Supply & Regional Trade: Iraq has started importing gasoline through Syria’s Baniyas port as a Hormuz workaround, with shipments moving by land toward al-Tanf under a three-month arrangement. EU-Syria Economic Reset: Syria’s foreign minister urged the EU to lift remaining sanctions on state institutions while keeping targeted measures on former-regime figures; the EU says it wants to “upgrade” cooperation but links progress to reforms and security. Cost-of-Living Pressure: Protests in eastern Syria followed fuel-price hikes blamed on the Iran-linked energy crisis, showing how recovery remains uneven for households. Industry & Investment Signals: EU officials and Syrian authorities discussed boosting investment and rebuilding institutions—key for restarting manufacturing and services after years of disruption. Regional Logistics: The wider Middle East energy corridor push (IMEC) gets renewed political backing, highlighting how conflict risk is reshaping shipping, rail, and pipeline priorities.

EU-Syria Partnership: EU foreign affairs chief Kaja Kallas says the bloc wants to “upgrade” its partnership with Syria, linking any boost to reforms, security, rule of law, and investment trust. Fuel & Protests: Syrians return to daily life after broad fuel-price protests, but the economy still feels out of reach as authorities cite the regional energy crisis. Energy Infrastructure Shock: Sabotage is blamed for an explosion on a Deir ez-Zor gas pipeline, halting gas flow from the Jebsa plant to power stations and worsening an already tight supply picture. Border Trade & Logistics: Syria begins work on the Qamishli–Nusaybin border crossing with Türkiye, aiming to expand cargo areas, customs facilities, and passenger infrastructure. Lebanon-Syria Trade Push: A Lebanon-Syria investment forum highlights new opportunities in services like logistics, engineering, construction management, banking know-how, food production, and pharmaceuticals. Humanitarian Funding Pressure: UNHCR warns 8.3 million displaced people face losing vital aid due to severe funding cuts. Regional Security Pressure: Syria urges the EU to pressure Israel to halt attacks and demands withdrawal to pre-Dec. 8, 2024 lines.

Fuel & Protests: Syria’s interim government raised fuel prices (26%) and diesel (40%) after Iran-war-linked spikes, triggering protests as households struggle with higher electricity and inflation. Border & Trade Logistics: Syria began construction of a new border crossing with Türkiye in Hasakah to ease freight and passenger pressure and cut travel times. Energy Corridor Shift: Syria started shipping imported gasoline to Iraq via Baniyas/Banias terminal, as Iraq looks for alternatives to Hormuz disruptions. Real Estate & Property Rights: Rural Damascus residents halted work on major projects near Qudsaya and Dummar, demanding settlement of expropriation and compensation files before development resumes. Aviation & Connectivity: flydubai is showcasing its growing Syria network at the inaugural Syria Travel Show in Damascus, highlighting expanded Damascus and Aleppo routes. Fiscal Discipline: The Syrian presidency ordered spending rationalization and tighter fiscal discipline, protecting core services like health, education, water, energy, and security. Regional Shipping Risk: IMO says about 6,000 seafarers remain trapped around Hormuz and is working on evacuation and mine-clearing measures.

Energy Corridor Boost: Syria has started shipping imported gasoline to Iraq via the Banias oil terminal under a renewable three-month deal, with an initial 57 tanker trucks and plans to ramp up to about 200 per day through al-Tanf, as Hormuz disruptions keep squeezing Iraq’s fuel and export options. Trade Facilitation: Iraq and Syria agreed on eight measures to streamline cross-border trade and passenger traffic, including electronic customs-data exchange, direct border communication, dedicated lanes, and faster transit—Damascus business leaders say this could lift bilateral trade by 30–50% in the first year. Budget Discipline: Syria’s presidency ordered government bodies to rationalize public spending, cut unnecessary expenditures, and re-rank investment projects by necessity and feasibility, while protecting core services like wages, health, education, water, energy, security, and maintenance. Aviation Sanctions Impact: US secondary sanctions targeting Iran’s aviation sector are making travel and cargo logistics less predictable, with knock-on effects for servicing Iranian aircraft and related trade. Industry & Investment Push: Iraq’s PM used UNGA to urge investors to “invest with Iraq,” pitching energy corridors linking Iraq with Türkiye, Jordan, and Syria and calling for reforms and anti-corruption steps to attract capital. Security Pressure on Industry: Israeli shelling and incursions in Daraa and Quneitra continue to hit agricultural areas and disrupt local stability, raising risks for farming and supply routes.

Energy & Trade Corridor: Syria’s Syrian Petroleum Company has started gasoline transit for Iraq via the Banias oil terminal under a three-month renewable deal, with an initial 57 tanker-truck batch and plans to scale to about 200 trucks per day through al-Tanf, as regional shipping disruptions keep pressure on fuel supplies. Customs Modernization: Iraq and Syria agreed eight measures to streamline cross-border trade and passenger traffic, including electronic customs-data exchange, dedicated lanes, and faster transit procedures—Damascus Chamber expects bilateral trade to jump 30–50% in the first year. Aviation & Investment: Damascus granted Fly Dar Airlines its Air Operator Certificate, the first private Syrian airline certified since Assad’s fall, signaling a push to reopen the aviation sector to private investment. Industry & Jobs: The Syrian Bakery Corporation says 159 bakeries were upgraded since the previous regime fell, with 150 new licensed bakeries and dozens nearing return to service to improve bread quality. Reconstruction Watch: Human Rights Watch warns Syria’s reconstruction deals are moving ahead without a rights framework, risking weak consultation, compensation, and resident challenges. Security Impact on Agriculture: Israeli warplanes and shelling hit Daraa and Quneitra agricultural areas, including raids and artillery fire near Kodna and Kodna Dam, with no confirmed casualties reported. Skills & Livelihoods: Qatar Charity launched a $1mn+ training project for 540 people in Aleppo, Idlib, Jisr al-Shughur and Al-Amal City, targeting women, returnees and people with disabilities with vocational and digital tracks.

Bakery Modernization: Syria’s state-run Syrian Bakery Corporation says 159 bakeries have been upgraded since the fall of the former regime, with 150 newly licensed commercial bakeries and 74 nearing return to service—aimed at better bread quality and competition. Aviation Liberalization: Damascus granted Fly Dar Airlines an Air Operator Certificate, the first private Syrian airline certified since Dec. 2024, signaling a push to rebuild aviation and expand private investment. Fuel Trade via Syria: Iraq has begun importing petrol through Syria, unloading an initial 32,000 tonnes at Baniyas for road transport back to Iraq, deepening Damascus-Baghdad energy ties amid Hormuz disruption. Investor Push for Recovery: A Syrian official says Turkish investors are expected to be key to post-war recovery, with new laws in preparation and priority on repairing energy and transport networks; textiles are already a focus. Skills for Jobs: Qatar Charity launched a $1mn+ training project for 540 women and men in Aleppo, Idlib, Jisr al-Shughur and Al-Amal City, covering tailoring, solar and surveillance installation, phone/computer repair, and digital marketing to connect trainees to work and small business paths. Reconstruction Watch: Human Rights Watch warns Syria’s reconstruction deals are moving without a rights framework, calling for community consultation, fair compensation, and avenues to challenge decisions. Road Freight Pressure (Regional): Dubai announced peak-hour lorry bans on major routes from Oct. 1 to ease congestion and regulate logistics flow.

Reconstruction & Rights: Human Rights Watch warns Syria’s transitional government is signing major reconstruction deals without a rights framework—no required community consultation, no negotiated compensation, and no independent way for residents to challenge home and land decisions. Aviation & Investment: Damascus granted Fly Dar Airlines its Air Operator Certificate, the first private airline certification since Assad’s fall, signaling a push to reopen the aviation sector and expand private investment at Damascus International Airport. Skills for Jobs: Qatar Charity launched a $1m vocational project in northwestern Syria to train 540 people (including women, returnees, and people with disabilities) in trades from tailoring and solar installation to phone repair and digital marketing. Return Risks for Agriculture: In Hasakah, mine threats and slow clearance are delaying safe returns; residents say they’re reopening roads for planting despite landmine concerns, with too few clearance teams for the area. Syria Recovery Outlook: An aid chief says Syria’s recovery will take decades and that international assistance is still “woefully insufficient,” with urgent needs in water, electricity, roads, hospitals, and job creation. Trade & Energy Links: Azerbaijan and Syria discussed expanding economic ties, highlighting Azerbaijani natural gas supply and humanitarian support to restore education infrastructure. Regional Logistics Context: Dubai announced truck movement restrictions from Oct. 1, a reminder of how transport rules can ripple into regional supply chains.

Syria Reconstruction & Aid: Prosper Global’s chief warns Syria’s recovery will take “multi-decade” and that international assistance is still “woefully insufficient,” with water, power, roads, hospitals and jobs as immediate priorities. Energy & Trade Diplomacy: Azerbaijan and Syria discussed expanding economic ties, highlighting Azerbaijani natural gas supply to Syria and cooperation on trade, investment, infrastructure and humanitarian projects. Industry & Investment Links: Azerbaijan’s PM Ali Asadov met Syria’s economy minister, stressing the 2nd Azerbaijan International Investment Forum and pushing further cooperation in energy, infrastructure and investment. Logistics & Transport: Dubai announced truck movement restrictions starting Oct. 1, 2026, with road-by-road curbs and an awareness campaign aimed at easing congestion while keeping goods flowing. Humanitarian Return & Agriculture: In Hasakah, residents say mine clearance is too slow for safe returns, threatening planting season and access to agricultural land. Security & Mines: Separate reports note mine threats and slow clearance affecting displaced communities, underscoring risks to livelihoods and rebuilding.

Syrian Air rebuilds European links: Syrian Air resumed flights to Europe, adding Copenhagen (Sept. 21) and then Vienna, but says a fuel-provider contract breach delayed the Copenhagen return by 20+ hours—highlighting how logistics and sanctions-era supply chains still shape airline recovery. Jordan-Syria coordination for trade and infrastructure: Syrian and Jordanian officials met in Damascus ahead of the October Coordination Council, reviewing projects spanning natural gas supply, border and air services updates, electricity interconnection repairs, a Yarmouk Basin water digital platform, telecom connectivity, and even reviving the Hejaz railway line. Digital payments for aid (with Syria pilots in the background): Circle Foundation announced new grants with UNDP and WFP to test faster, cheaper digital payment corridors, including regulated stablecoins, aiming to reduce friction while keeping compliance and resilience. Return and livelihoods in Serêkaniyê: A displaced persons committee urged Damascus and local authorities to keep return convoys safe and orderly, remove obstacles, and protect homes and businesses—warning camp closures are already cutting access to education. Regional shipping pressure at UNGA: Pakistan’s PM Shehbaz Sharif urged Hormuz and Bab al-Mandab stay open as “arteries of the global economy,” tying Middle East hostilities to energy and trade costs that ripple through the region.

Cultural Heritage & Trade: Manhattan DA returned 36 antiquities to Syria, including a Palmyra stone relief and Roman mosaics valued at about $5m, while also seizing 13 more items from the Met—another push to curb trafficking and restore heritage. Tourism & Services: Syria Travel Show 2026 is set for 28–30 September in Damascus, bringing tourism authorities, investors, hospitality and aviation players, plus startups and SMEs, as the sector tries to rebuild visitor flows. Food Industry & Household Production: Syria’s makdous tradition is slipping out of reach as poverty and food prices rise; families in rural Damascus say they can’t afford olive oil and other inputs for mouneh preservation. Reconstruction & Culture: Al Hamra Theatre reopened in Damascus after nearly nine months of rehabilitation, joining a wider wave of restored Syrian theatres and museums. Business & Investment Links: Syria and Azerbaijan move closer on trade and investment with the launch of an Azerbaijan-Syria Business Council, with a focus on partnerships and technology transfer. Energy & Logistics (Regional): Iraq renewed calls to diversify oil export routes via corridors linking Türkiye, Jordan and Syria, highlighting how regional transport and maritime disruptions can hit energy prices.