AGP Executive Report

Syria’s oil & gas push: Syria is preparing tenders to upgrade refining capacity after refineries ran at just ~20% of pre-war levels, with plans to refurbish Baniyas and potentially build a new 150,000 bpd refinery, with US technology firms flagged as possible partners. Private sector recovery model: Damascus has adopted a “strategic partnership” approach between the public and private sectors, replacing outright privatization in its recovery plan, and held a national dialogue with business to shape the new economic framework. Banking governance: The Syrian Central Bank governor said the next phase will rely on institutional work and coordination, ruling out improvised decisions as the private sector dialogue tackled banking-sector concerns. Tourism industry support: Syria announced a new Tourism Police Unit to guide visitors and improve safety along tourism routes, alongside hotel rehabilitation and a major $300m business-center plan aimed at attracting regional investment. Regional trade infrastructure: Türkiye is discussing reviving the Hejaz Railway and extending it toward Oman, with an initial link via Aleppo and potential connections through Syria and Jordan—positioned as an alternative corridor to Hormuz. Agriculture & water stress: Euphrates-related flooding and water-level swings are disrupting farming and livelihoods, with reports of damage to farmland and urgent government measures in eastern Syria.

Syria Recovery & Investment: Damascus is pushing sanctions relief as a key lever for reconstruction and private investment, after a phone call between President Ahmed al-Sharaa and U.S. President Donald Trump highlighted the sanctions file as central to restarting the economy. Oil & Gas Logistics: Iraq is accelerating crude exports by expanding pipeline routes and lining up a Syria-linked Mediterranean option, with plans to ship Basrah crude via Baniyas and Tartous as Hormuz disruptions squeeze Gulf shipping. Water & Agriculture: A Syrian hydrologist warns illegal wells are driving a water “catastrophe,” urging authorities to shut hundreds of thousands of wells that drain aquifers and worsen spring and river depletion—an issue made sharper by Euphrates flooding that damaged farms. Security & Local Arms Control: Clashes in Zakya (Damascus countryside) again spotlight illicit weapons and the pressure on internal forces to reassert state control. Regional Transport Connectivity: Türkiye is planning to revive and extend the Hejaz Railway, starting with a link to Aleppo in Syria, aiming to build an alternative trade corridor beyond Hormuz. State-Building in Iraq: Iraq’s PM hosted Iranian-backed militia leaders to thank them for supporting a plan to place arms under state control—raising questions about how quickly armed groups will actually comply.

Oil & Exports: Iraq approved a major push to boost crude exports via Turkey’s Ceyhan and onward routes, aiming to lift flows from about 220,000 bpd to as much as 770,000 bpd within weeks, with additional plans involving Syria’s Mediterranean ports (Baniyas and Tartus) and the Basra–Haditha pipeline. Energy Infrastructure: Baghdad also moved to restart production at key Kurdistan fields after disruptions tied to attacks on energy infrastructure, signaling a faster recovery of output. Security & Arms Control: A fresh clash in Zakya, west of Damascus, left civilians caught in the crossfire and renewed pressure on authorities to curb illicit weapons and reassert state control. Tourism & Services: Syria announced a new Tourism Police unit to guide visitors and improve safety along recognized routes, as the country tries to revive tourism and attract investment. Finance: Damascus bourse trading rose on two large deals, lifting June 3 turnover to about SYP80.8mn. Market/Trade Context: Turkey’s push to modernize the Hejaz Railway and link it toward Aleppo and beyond was framed as an alternative corridor to reduce reliance on chokepoints like Hormuz.

Syria’s private sector reboot: Syria’s National Private Sector Conference opened in Damascus, with the Economy and Industry Ministry pushing a new public-private model to attract investment and rebuild value chains, while UNDP and Japan support the agenda. Food security pressure on farmers: Wheat growers across Syria protested government procurement prices, arguing the $330/ton rate won’t cover seed, fertilizer, irrigation and haulage costs as the Syrian pound slides—raising questions about how far “free-market” rhetoric can go. Agriculture hit by water extremes: Eastern Syria’s Euphrates flooding and receding levels have disrupted farmland and forced emergency response, with reports of thousands of families affected and farmland swamped or damaged. Land access and livelihoods: Displaced Alawi farmers fear losing livelihoods again as land disputes and state agricultural management delay returns ahead of the pistachio season. Reconstruction and industry outlook: Coverage also frames Syria as a high-risk but high-potential reconstruction market, with calls for “bankable projects” to unlock foreign investment.

Private Sector Push: Syria’s first National Conference for Dialogue with the Syrian Private Sector in Rural Damascus brought finance, transport and agriculture ministers together with business and UNDP/Japan partners, aiming to shape a new growth and reconstruction phase after years of war damage. Food Security Pressure: Wheat farmers in Raqqa and Daraa are protesting government wheat procurement prices they say don’t cover costs, putting Syria’s bread-and-wheat system under fresh strain. Agriculture Hit by Floods: Deir ez-Zor’s Euphrates flooding submerged 16,870 dunums of farmland, knocked out water stations and damaged pumping networks, with emergency repairs underway. Water-Logistics Link: Turkey’s water releases and rising Euphrates flows are driving emergency measures across eastern Syria, while displaced families face renewed disruption. Energy & Trade Routes: Turkey is discussing reviving a transport corridor through Syria and Jordan to reach Saudi and Gulf markets, with logistics framed as a way to move goods and food more reliably. Regional Energy Signals: Azerbaijan’s gas exports and supply plans were highlighted at Baku Energy Week, including deliveries to Syria, as regional energy security remains a top theme. Aid Funding Gap: WFP suspended food assistance for 135,000 Syrian refugees in Jordan host communities due to a funding shortfall, while camp support continues at reduced levels.

Industrial Parks & Investment Climate: Syria is being urged to focus on “bankable projects” and deliver predictable laws, clear regulations, and transparency to unlock foreign investment as sanctions unwind and trade ties reopen. Energy Exports to Syria: Azerbaijan’s SOCAR says it will keep expanding natural gas production and diversify exports, noting Syria has now joined the list of markets receiving Azerbaijani gas. Euphrates Floods Hit Agriculture: Heavy rainfall and increased flows from Turkey have driven exceptional Euphrates flooding, damaging farmland, homes, bridges, and disrupting irrigation and drinking-water pumping in Deir ez-Zor and Raqqa. Water Infrastructure Response: Syria’s energy ministry and local authorities are responding as water levels rise and then recede, with reports of rehabilitation and reactivation of water stations in affected areas. Industrial Supply Chain Disruption: Reports also highlight how regional instability and logistics constraints are complicating trade and reconstruction planning, even as interest in rebuilding grows. Cross-border Energy Planning: Türkiye’s energy officials say electricity interconnection projects linking Azerbaijan, Georgia, Türkiye, and Bulgaria could eventually extend toward Central Asia, with Syria cited as benefiting from regional gas initiatives.

Syrian Reconstruction & Energy: Turkey and Azerbaijan say gas deliveries to Syria are already supporting power-plant restarts and reconstruction, with Erdoğan stressing the initiative’s role in regional stability. Trade & Industry Signals: Jordan reports Q1 2026 exports up to JD 2.129bn, led by garments, potash and pharmaceuticals, with big gains to Syria—an indirect read-through for Levant supply chains. Euphrates Floods Disrupt Production: Eastern Syria faces renewed displacement and farmland damage as Euphrates levels rise, with emergency response and water-flow adjustments hitting local livelihoods. Southern Syria Security Impact: Enab Baladi reports an Israeli shooting incident injuring a livestock herder in Daraa, a reminder of how conflict risk directly affects rural work. Regional Food Costs: WFP warns Lebanon’s displacement crisis is pushing food further out of reach, with access and funding constraints threatening markets. Energy Trade Expansion: Azerbaijan says it exported 16.7 bcm of gas to Europe over the past year and highlights ongoing projects that could deepen regional energy links.

Energy & Trade: Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan says gas supplies to Syria via a joint Türkiye-Azerbaijan initiative will back Syria’s development and regional security, pointing to major pipeline projects and continued energy cooperation. Sanctions & Reconstruction: Syrian President Ahmad al-Sharaa and US President Donald Trump discussed Syria’s economic recovery, with Damascus urging removal of remaining US sanctions to unlock reconstruction and investor confidence. Water, Agriculture & Industry: Euphrates flooding in eastern Syria is easing after damaging farms and displacing thousands in Raqqa and Deir ez-Zor, with authorities linking the surge to Turkey’s upstream dam releases and warning of ongoing impacts on the breadbasket. Diplomacy & Regional Logistics: The US expanded Tom Barrack’s role as special envoy for Syria and Iraq while he remains ambassador to Türkiye, signaling tighter diplomatic oversight as regional conditions shift. Security Shock to Supply Chains: Israel conducted fresh ground incursions into southern Syria (Quneitra and Daraa), adding instability risk for cross-border movement and local production. Regional Energy Security: Turkey’s proposed maritime bill and plans for a two-way gas pipeline to occupied areas keep drilling and resource competition in the Eastern Mediterranean in focus.

Euphrates Flood Response: Floodwaters in eastern Syria’s Deir Ezzor and Raqqa are now receding after displacing thousands and damaging farms during the wheat harvest, with authorities citing reduced releases from the Tabaqa dam and emergency rescue work after bridge collapses and isolated communities. Water-Energy Governance: Syria’s energy ministry says it has started operational steps to gradually cut Euphrates inflows after Turkey’s Ataturk Dam releases, shifting the crisis from drought management to flood control and infrastructure protection. Reconstruction & Sanctions: President Ahmed al-Sharaa held a phone call with U.S. President Trump focused on economic recovery, with sanctions relief framed as key to unlocking investment, jobs, and reconstruction momentum. Trade & Logistics Friction: A report says Iraqi oil exports via overland tankers to reach markets through Syria are being choked by bureaucratic red tape, including security-clearance paperwork that can delay shipments for weeks. Regional Energy Ambitions: Turkey is pushing ahead with plans for a bidirectional gas pipeline to occupied Cyprus and a parallel power interconnection, aiming to strengthen its role as a regional energy hub. Industry Snapshot: Syria’s cement sector and broader reconstruction market are highlighted as high-risk but high-potential, as the country weighs rebuilding needs against ongoing instability.

Euphrates Flood Response: Syria’s Energy Ministry and emergency teams are battling sharp Euphrates rises that have hit Deir Ezzor and Raqqa, affecting about 2,400 families, flooding farmland, and disrupting water stations and crossings; authorities say they’ve started reducing inflows after technical steps at the Euphrates Dam, including spillway gate adjustments, while President Al Sharaa visited flood zones and the state moved to keep bakeries running with 1,050 tonnes of flour. Food & Livelihoods: In Iraq’s Kurdistan, a UN-backed hub helped refugee and host-community farmers sell directly to major supermarket chains, boosting earnings by up to 48% after fast-selling potato shipments to Carrefour. Reconstruction & Investment Signals: Syria is again pitching reconstruction opportunities in energy, infrastructure, logistics, real estate and digital services, with analysts citing huge needs but warning that sanctions and risk still scare off many investors. Industry & Security Spillover: A report says US Congress is advancing a plan to deepen US-Israel defense tech cooperation, pointing to broader military-industrial integration that could shape regional industrial priorities.

Euphrates Water Crisis: Syria’s water authorities say Turkey has cut Euphrates flows, pushing Damascus to reduce releases from the Euphrates Dam and manage flooding risk in Raqqa and Deir Ezzor. Disaster Response & Food Supply: President Ahmad al-Sharaa visited flood-hit Deir Ezzor after surging river levels affected about 2,400 families; authorities evacuated vulnerable areas, preemptively cut power lines near critical infrastructure, and dispatched 1,050 tonnes of flour to keep local bakeries running. Regional Water Security: Iraq announced round-the-clock monitoring and dam/reservoir operating plans to handle expected inflows from Syria. Reconstruction & Investment Outlook: Syria is again being pitched as a high-potential reconstruction market, with analysts citing massive needs across energy, infrastructure, logistics, and digital services—while warning sanctions and weak institutions keep risk high. Levant Energy Deal: A tripartite Syria-Jordan-Lebanon energy agreement aims to use Jordanian LNG infrastructure and restart the Arab Gas Pipeline, targeting power shortages and reconstruction demand. Industry & Trade Signals: Reports also highlight Syria’s cement sector momentum and new logistics moves, including CMA CGM operating Syrian dry ports under a new deal. Southern Lebanon Spillover: Israeli strikes and shelling intensified in southern Lebanon, with evacuation warnings issued—another reminder of how regional instability can disrupt trade and supply chains.

Euphrates Flood Response: President Ahmad al-Sharaa visited flood-hit Deir Ezzor after surging Euphrates waters collapsed a bridge, submerged farmland, and disrupted crossings; authorities deployed the navy for evacuations and rushed drinking water as some stations went offline. Energy & Water Monitoring: Syria’s energy ministry said rapid inflows followed increased releases from Turkish dams plus heavy seasonal rain, with emergency alerts also issued in Iraq and warnings that conditions could worsen. Industrial Connectivity Pitch: Syria is again positioning itself as a land-based corridor for energy and trade as Hormuz remains effectively constrained, betting on investment momentum from regional partners to support transport and connectivity projects. Cement & Compliance Pressure: Azerbaijani civil groups renewed international calls for oversight of Lafarge Cement Syria, citing past operations during 2012-2014 and major legal penalties tied to alleged terrorism financing. Trade & Logistics Watch: A Cyprus-Lebanon ferry plan was announced for June 9, but officials say the operator may not have secured the required permits—raising safety and legal concerns for any future links that could extend to Latakia and beyond. Security & Risk: Separate reporting highlights how commercial location data can be exploited to target forces in war zones, underscoring new operational risks for regional logistics and industry.

Euphrates Flooding: Syria’s energy ministry says Euphrates levels are rising sharply after Turkey increased releases from its dams and heavy seasonal rain hit the basin, triggering states of emergency in Deir ez-Zor, Raqqa and Aleppo; bridges, farmland and homes are already affected, and authorities are monitoring for flash floods and dangerous currents. Reconstruction Watch: A new wave of investor interest is circling Syria’s postwar rebuild, with needs estimated by the World Bank at at least $216bn, spanning power, roads, ports, airports, water networks and digital services—though sanctions risk, weak institutions and political uncertainty remain major brakes. Cross-Border Logistics: Reports say Uzbekistan is moving into the Syrian market with shipments and trade plans eyeing $100–150m in exports, signaling renewed regional supply-chain activity. Industry & Services: Syria’s cement sector is described as emerging from the shadows, hinting at improving conditions for local manufacturing. Security Pressure on Industry: Syrian Observatory reports 72 Israeli incursions into southern Syria since May 2, including raids and fortification work that can disrupt border-area agriculture and livelihoods.

Euphrates Flood Response: Syria’s water authorities warned of rising Euphrates levels after Turkey opened dam floodgates, triggering flooding that damaged bridges, farmland and homes in Deir Ezzor and Raqqa; a state emergency was declared and an 11-truck Red Crescent aid convoy was dispatched as residents were evacuated. Cross-Border Security Pressure: The Syrian Observatory reported 72 Israeli incursions into southern Syria since May 2, with raids, arrests, overflights and fortification works concentrated around Quneitra and Daraa, including impacts on agricultural lands. Trade & Industry Linkages: Uzbekistan agreed to send initial shipments to Syria—10 truckloads covering household appliances, cooking oil, and automotive spare parts/motor oil—after online talks involving the Uzbek Chamber of Commerce and Syrian partners, with a trade house already operating in Aleppo under “Made in Uzbekistan.” Energy/Water Risk Management: Damascus said the surge is tied to heavy rainfall and increased releases from Turkish dams, prompting monitoring and precautionary measures across multiple governorates.

Cyber & Industry Security: ESET’s APT Activity Report (Oct 2025–Mar 2026) says China-aligned groups probed maritime, energy, and strategic tech, including a Syrian government network tied to reconstruction interests and concerns over Uyghur fighters. Regional Shipping & Energy: A Korean government team says Iranian Noor-series anti-ship missiles hit the HMM Namu cargo ship in the Strait of Hormuz, underscoring how shipping risk is reshaping trade routes. Transport Connectivity: Lebanon’s Jounieh–Cyprus ferry (Cedar Waves) is set to start in June after delays, with plans to extend links toward Latakia (Syria) and Mersin (Turkey), boosting regional passenger and logistics options. Water & Infrastructure Risk in Syria: Syria and Iraq issued Euphrates evacuation alerts after Turkey released water and dam spillway gates opened, threatening bridges, farmland, and riverbank communities. Food & Livestock Trade: Iraq suspends livestock transit from Syria over foot-and-mouth concerns, while Syria’s border authority denies an outbreak and says exports continue. Reconstruction Watch: A Media Line report highlights Syria’s massive rebuilding needs (World Bank estimate up to $345B), but flags sanctions exposure and weak institutions as key barriers for investors.

Chemical Weapons Cleanup: Syria says it has found remnants of the Assad-era chemical weapons program, including sarin-related production materials, mixing/storage equipment, and munitions linked to past attacks, alongside the detention of 18 alleged suspects, with items transferred for OPCW-linked verification. Reconstruction & Investment: A new report highlights Syria’s massive rebuilding needs (estimated up to $216bn) and the investor pull in energy, infrastructure, logistics, real estate, and digital services—tempered by sanctions exposure, weak institutions, and political uncertainty. Rail & Logistics Reality Check: A look at Syria’s last operational freight rail line shows how breakdowns and delays are undermining a broader push to position Syria as a regional logistics corridor. Shipping Risk in the Region: Separate reports flag explosions near the Strait of Hormuz involving tankers, underscoring how maritime insecurity keeps trade and energy routes on edge. Regional Connectivity Plans: Turkey’s Mersin ports are set to link into major corridor routes via rail upgrades, a reminder of how corridor competition can shape Syria’s future trade prospects.