AGP Executive Report

Agriculture & Rural Livelihoods: Afrin wheat looks better this season, but farmers say costs (seeds, fertilizer, diesel, harvesting, transport) and weak selling prices are squeezing returns. Border & Land Use: In Quneitra, Israeli forces bulldozed agricultural land near Samadaniya al-Gharbiya and blocked roads with berms; a detained man was later released. Energy Logistics: Lebanon is preparing a roadmap to move Iraqi fuel oil by road through Syria to Tripoli, focusing on border-crossing and road readiness. Regional Security With Industrial Spillovers: Saudi Arabia, Türkiye and Pakistan signed the Mecca Joint Defense Agreement, treating attacks on one as attacks on all—while analysts frame it as a shift toward regional security autonomy that could reshape trade and defense-industrial cooperation. Sanctions & Trade Pressure: Iraq’s crude exports reportedly fell 75% amid Strait of Hormuz closures and regional escalation, triggering liquidity stress and salary delays. Investment & Modernization: Jordan’s government says 343 of 394 economic modernization projects started in early 2026, supported by new investment incentives and regulatory steps.

Solar & Storage Investment: Saudi Al Harfi Construction signed agreements with the Syrian Electricity Company to build 760 MW of solar and 1,077 MWh of battery storage in Damascus countryside, aiming to stabilize the grid and cut chronic power shortages. Cross-Border Energy Logistics: Lebanon is preparing a plan to move Iraqi fuel oil by road through Syria to Tripoli, with a Monday meeting expected to map border-crossing, customs, and security requirements. Security & Agriculture Hit in Quneitra: Israeli forces carried out raids and bulldozed agricultural lands in central Quneitra, while another report says farmland was shelled near Samadaniya al-Gharbiya. Regional Defense Signals: Saudi Arabia, Türkiye, and Pakistan signed the Mecca Joint Defense Agreement, treating an attack on one as an attack on all—an important backdrop for Syria’s wider regional trade and security environment. Women in Governance: Syria’s new People’s Assembly session highlighted low female representation (22 of 210 seats) alongside new appointments and community diversity.

Renewables for Syria’s grid: Saudi Al Harfi Construction and the Syrian Electricity Company signed deals for 760 MW of solar plus 1,077 MWh of battery storage in Damascus countryside, aiming to cut power shortages and stabilize the network. Regional security with economic spillovers: Saudi Arabia, Türkiye and Pakistan signed the Mecca Joint Defence Agreement, saying an attack on any one would be treated as an attack on all—raising stakes for Gulf energy routes and regional industry planning. Syria’s reconstruction push: A report says Türkiye is moving faster than other partners to shape Syria’s post-war recovery through military, investment, diplomacy and institutional support. Parliament and workforce signals: Syria’s first post-Assad parliament includes 22 women lawmakers (about 10%), including a civil engineering professor—an early indicator of who may influence rebuilding priorities. Energy logistics pressure: Coverage highlights how Hormuz disruption is pushing countries to rethink shipping and pipeline routes, with knock-on effects for Syria-linked fuel and trade corridors.

Renewable Power Deal: Syria’s state utility SEC and Saudi Al-Harfi Construction signed PPAs for three solar-plus-battery projects in Damascus (Widyan ar-Rabi’), totaling 760 MW solar and 1,077 MWh BESS, with 20–25 year terms and tariffs starting around $0.03/kWh—a major boost for a grid plagued by blackouts. Aviation & Logistics: Syria reopened Deir Ezzor International Airport after nearly 14 years, restoring domestic and international services. Energy Supply Prep (Lebanon): A Monday meeting chaired by PM Nawaf Salam will map how to move Iraqi fuel to Lebanon by tanker trucks, including reopening northern border crossings and assessing Tripoli storage and road capacity. Security & Regional Industry Risk: The Mecca Joint Defence Agreement signed by Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Pakistan deepens deterrence ties amid Gulf shipping and energy-infrastructure threats—raising the stakes for regional trade routes that Syria’s recovery depends on. Local Disruption: An explosion on a Damascus-area minibus injured 14 people, underscoring ongoing instability that can hit transport and daily commerce.

Syria’s Wheat Milestone: Syria says it has met domestic wheat needs for the first time since 2011, with the Grain Establishment receiving 2.7 million tons—above the 2.55 million ton annual requirement—boosting food security after years of war and drought. Post-Assad Parliament Watch: Syria’s first parliament after Assad’s fall includes 22 women out of 207 seats, with appointees spanning an actress, a Christian engineer, a Kurdish leader, and the widow of a hardline Islamist commander—an early signal of the new authorities’ inclusivity push. Digital Public Infrastructure: UNDP is moving blockchain from pilots to wider production use in countries including Syria, saying the remaining hurdles are governance, interoperability, and trust—aiming to cut costs in digital payments. Regional Trade & Energy Pressure: Reporting on Syria’s wider economic environment highlights how shipping and energy routes tied to the Strait of Hormuz remain a major lever for regional stability and industrial supply chains. Cross-Border Security Impact: Israeli artillery shelling hit agricultural land in Quneitra’s countryside, underscoring how renewed southern tensions can disrupt farming and local logistics.

Syria Economic Recovery: The IMF says Syria’s recovery is accelerating as reforms advance, investor sentiment improves, and reintegration with the region and global economy picks up, while still warning that fiscal, banking and structural reforms must continue. Energy & Industry: A push to revive the Iraq–Syria oil pipeline is back on the table as a way to reduce reliance on Hormuz and deepen economic ties with Damascus and Baghdad, with engineering studies and contracting discussed for a multi-year timeline. Agrifood Supply Chain: Kobani’s wheat procurement campaign has wrapped up, with silos receiving over 60,000 tons from local farmers and shipping significant volumes to mills across Syria. Construction Materials: Iraq’s Al-Qaim cement plant hit full design capacity and is ramping exports to Syria, supporting regional manufacturing and building demand. Trade & Logistics: The US lifted sanctions on Iraqi carrier Fly Baghdad after operational changes, easing pressure on aviation links that affect broader commerce. Maritime Risk: Russia’s strikes on civilian shipping and port-linked grain flows keep threatening food supply routes that also matter for Syria’s import costs and availability.

Sanctions & Aviation: The US Treasury delisted Iraq’s Fly Baghdad and two Boeing 737s from Iran-linked sanctions after the airline showed “major changes” to operations, while keeping sanctions on the previously identified owner. Defense Procurement: The US Army is seeking industry input for a cheaper anti-drone missile that can launch from its existing Coyote system, aiming to cut the cost gap between drones and interceptors. Syria Economy: The IMF says Syria’s recovery is gaining pace, with double-digit growth expected in 2026 as reforms improve sentiment, banking, and reintegration. Energy & Industry: Reports say Syria agreed to drastically reduce Russian oil imports as part of US sanctions talks, a move that could reshape Syria’s energy supply chains. Cyber & Logistics: Kaspersky flagged new Windows backdoors (OctLurk/SilkLurk) targeting government and logistics-linked organizations, including in Syria. Security Trade: Aleppo fuel stations report delays in gasoline arrivals from refineries, with one station tied to the Syrian Sovereign Fund reportedly less affected. Regional Trade Routes: Iraq and Türkiye extended the Ceyhan pipeline deal, with talk of a longer route that could connect Iraq’s Basra to Syria’s Baniyas as Hormuz risks push alternatives.

Syria Economy Watch: The IMF says Syria’s recovery is accelerating, with double-digit growth expected in 2026 driven by agriculture rebound, expanding hydrocarbon output, better electricity, and stronger trade and services—though poverty stays widespread and growth is uneven by region. Tourism & Services: Damascus tour operators report visitor numbers rising, but tourism still hinges on flight availability, security, and service quality, as Syria pushes the sector for jobs and foreign currency. Energy & Trade Corridors: Türkiye is pushing new oil and gas routes to Europe via Iraq-to-Ceyhan links, extending pipeline capacity and considering further connections toward Basra—aimed at reducing reliance on Hormuz disruptions. Regional Integration Angle: A new analysis argues Gulf rail cooperation could help the region absorb shocks from maritime bottlenecks like Hormuz and the Red Sea. Governance & Security: Syria’s Al Shara met Kurdish leader Mazloum Abdi to discuss integrating forces into state institutions, a key step for nationwide control that also affects investment confidence.

Tourism & Services: Syria’s tourism rebound is picking up, with visitor numbers in the first half of 2026 jumping to 3.52 million (+111% year-on-year), but operators warn growth still hinges on flights, security, and service quality. Macroeconomy & Reform: The IMF says Syria’s recovery is accelerating, projecting double-digit growth in 2026 and 2027, driven by agriculture, hydrocarbon output, better electricity, and trade/services—while stressing poverty remains widespread and uneven by region. Energy & Industry: Damascus plans to lift Al-Jazira oil output toward 200,000 bpd (eventually above 250,000 bpd) as state control expands, with maintenance and rehabilitation starting immediately. Oil Trade & Sanctions Pressure: Reuters reports Syria is ready to sharply cut Russian oil imports as talks with Washington continue over removing the remaining terrorism-sponsor designation. Cross-border Infrastructure: Syria and Iraq are finalizing a contract to restore the Haditha–Baniyas pipeline, targeting completion in about three years, with capacity cited at 1.5–2 million bpd. Business & Investment: The UAE-Syria Business Council has been restructured to speed private-sector partnerships across food security, agriculture, logistics, industry, energy, infrastructure, tech, and finance.

Energy & Sanctions: Syria will cut Russian crude imports sharply as talks with Washington aim to lift the US terrorism designation, with Moscow having boosted deliveries to keep influence after Assad’s fall. Oil-Route Pressure: The wider Iran–US standoff is again reshaping shipping and pricing, while Big Oil profits rise on Strait of Hormuz disruption. Diplomacy & Trade: The UAE and Syria restructured the UAE-Syria Business Council, setting a roadmap across food security, agriculture, logistics, industry, energy and infrastructure. Tourism & Services: Syria’s tourism push is gaining momentum—3.52 million visitors in H1 2026, mostly Syrians abroad—but growth hinges on security, flights, and better on-the-ground services. Agrifood & Livestock: Qatar Charity expanded a livestock value-chain program in Idlib and Aleppo with mobile veterinary clinics, fodder distribution, artificial insemination, and market rehabilitation to support breeders and dairy livelihoods. Regional Security Spillover: Iraq faces mounting pressure to rein in Iran-backed militias as new data shows hundreds of drone and missile attacks on the Kurdistan Region since late February. Industry Risk: US sanctions hit Russian defense entities tied to WMD-related procurement involving Iran, North Korea and Syria, adding compliance pressure for regional supply chains.

Qatar-backed agriculture push in Syria: Qatar Charity (QC) and Attaa Humanitarian Relief Association are running a year-long Livestock Value Chain Support project in Idlib and Aleppo, reaching 34,000+ sheep/goats and about 1,942 cattle via mobile veterinary clinics, distributing 365 tonnes of processed fodder, and restoring the Saraqib livestock market ahead of local handover—plus plans for a fodder production facility to strengthen local supply. Industrial exports up in Zarqaa: Zarqaa Governorate’s industrial exports rose 10% in the first seven months to $902.8m, with July exports at $133.7m; leather and garments lead ($377m), while Arab markets account for 46% of exports, including big gains to Iraq, Saudi Arabia, UAE, Syria, and Qatar. Syria business conditions after Assad: RTVI’s field report says many factories and enterprises have shut down and markets are flooded with imports; it also notes Syria’s first cashless payment in 15 years and that card use remains limited. Energy logistics pressure from Hormuz risk: Coverage highlights how Gulf producers are accelerating pipeline and route plans to bypass the Strait of Hormuz; Chevron is studying a cross-border pipeline concept through Iraq toward Syria or Turkey to reach the Mediterranean.

Agribusiness Investment: Qatar’s Baladna Food Industries is developing a $3.3 billion project in Syria covering cotton, wheat, textiles, and other agriculture outputs, with plans to share farming know-how with Al Dahra. Reconstruction Finance: J.P. Morgan joined QNB and Abu Dhabi Commercial Bank to arrange nearly $7B in financing for Syria power and airport projects tied to Qatar’s Power International Holding, signaling a more serious funding phase for rebuilding. Economic Reality Check: A field report on “Syria After Assad” says many factories and enterprises have shut down and imported goods are flooding markets, while cashless payments remain limited despite early steps. Energy & Trade Risk: With Hormuz disruptions continuing, Iraq is offering steep discounts to buyers willing to load crude and route it through the Strait, underscoring how shipping chokepoints still shape regional industry. Food & Water Compliance: Oregon Fruit Products was fined $34,800 for discharging fruit-processing wastewater that killed aquatic life—another reminder of how strict environmental rules can hit food production. Security & Sovereignty: SOHR documented 64 Israeli incursions and violations in southern Syria during July, with Quneitra and Daraa seeing the heaviest activity.

Syria Reconstruction Finance: J.P. Morgan has joined Qatar National Bank and Abu Dhabi Commercial Bank to arrange a roughly $7bn loan package tied to Qatar’s Power International Holding, targeting Syria’s power infrastructure and airport redevelopment—an important signal that reconstruction projects are moving into a more scrutinized, syndication-ready phase. Energy & Logistics: As Hormuz risk keeps pushing exporters toward alternatives, shipbrokers say pipeline routes are expanding; the report flags Saudi and regional efforts to add Red Sea capacity and notes demand will hinge on port bottlenecks and route access. Cross-border Trade via Syria: DP World is reported to be looking at Syria’s Tartous port overhaul as a logistics gateway for Iraq, Jordan, Lebanon and Turkey—tying port modernization to regional supply chains. Local Industry Pressure: Extreme heat is straining Syria’s water and power systems, with northeastern communities in Hasakah facing water trucking shortages and electricity blackouts, raising operating costs and daily disruption for households and businesses. Southern Syria Security Impact: SOHR documents continued Israeli incursions and strikes across Quneitra and Daraa, including activity near agricultural areas—raising risks for farming and local infrastructure work.

Port & Logistics: DP World is pushing a Syria-linked logistics play, eyeing Iraq, Jordan and Turkey via an $800m modernization of Tartous Port—positioning Syria as a trade gateway as regional shipping stays volatile. Energy Infrastructure: Iraq and Türkiye signed a one-year deal to move 750,000 barrels/day of Iraqi oil through the Kirkuk–Ceyhan pipeline, aiming to cut reliance on Hormuz routes; Iraq also signals a longer-term expansion toward 1m bpd. Water & Power Resilience: Extreme heat is breaking Syria’s northeastern water and electricity systems, with residents in Hasakah queuing for scarce, often unsafe water while blackouts push reliance on costly solar and generators. Humanitarian Pressure in Industry Regions: In Idlib camps, temperatures inside tents reportedly exceed 50°C, with families buying water by the bucket and struggling to keep basic services running. Regional Security & Cross-Border Works: Reports from Daraa say Israeli forces are using heavy machinery to level land and rehabilitate roads along border areas—an engineering move that can reshape local access and trade routes.

Port & Trade: DP World is pushing an $800m overhaul of Syria’s Tartous port, pitching it as a logistics gateway for Iraq, Jordan, Lebanon and Turkey. Energy Corridors: Iraq and Türkiye signed a one-year deal to move at least 750,000 barrels per day from Kirkuk to Ceyhan, aiming to cut reliance on Gulf shipping lanes amid Strait of Hormuz disruptions. Shipping Pressure: A separate roundup of Hormuz alternatives shows how pipeline capacity and new routes are being accelerated across the region to protect crude exports. Security & Infrastructure: In Daraa’s countryside, Israeli engineering work in the Wadi al-Raqad area includes land leveling and road rehabilitation using heavy machinery, raising concerns about new facts on the ground. Defense Footprint: Reports on Türkiye’s SADAT consultancy describe a growing private-security presence across West Africa, with analysts linking it to Ankara’s wider strategic reach.

Energy & Trade Routes: Iraq and Türkiye signed a one-year deal to export 750,000 barrels per day via the Ceyhan pipeline, as Hormuz disruption pushes exporters to diversify. Agriculture & Food Industry: Qatar’s Baladna plans a $3.3bn Syrian farming project, a major bet on local production capacity. Industrial & Business Climate: Syria’s NasTex 2026 drew 351 exhibitors from 25 nations, signaling renewed momentum for manufacturing and trade links. Logistics & Security Risk: A drone strike at Egypt’s Damietta port is framed as a wider threat to maritime chokepoints connecting the Gulf, Red Sea and Mediterranean—an issue that can quickly hit regional shipping and supply chains. Regional Energy Politics: Iraq’s financial strain is worsening as officials struggle to pay salaries on time, while pressure grows to exempt Iraqi oil from Hormuz-related restrictions. Tech & Safety: Google Earth’s AI image tool was pulled after researchers showed it could generate convincing fake satellite imagery of nuclear and other sensitive sites. Heritage & Tourism Potential: UNESCO added Iran’s Alamut fortress system to the World Heritage List, highlighting how engineering heritage can support future tourism and related services.